Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 92.102312 125.555060 189.489002 379.672461 4101.198066 NaN NaN
2024-12-22 63.773970 90.208959 146.286921 370.106176 NaN NaN NaN
2024-12-29 53.180844 77.282538 132.720207 429.251254 NaN NaN NaN
2025-01-05 45.373374 66.280721 115.152052 395.036358 NaN NaN NaN
2025-01-12 40.654524 59.901531 106.126409 406.025762 NaN NaN NaN
2025-01-19 36.192158 53.079109 93.045264 334.984111 NaN NaN NaN
2025-01-26 33.891168 50.182786 89.928798 369.014564 NaN NaN NaN
2025-02-02 32.628331 49.131066 91.660082 506.789804 NaN NaN NaN
2025-02-09 31.623200 48.406475 94.135510 813.645404 NaN NaN NaN
2025-02-16 30.535530 47.296941 94.897071 1414.452482 NaN NaN NaN
2025-02-23 29.040757 45.057827 90.819224 1511.863417 NaN NaN NaN
2025-03-02 27.262165 42.002559 83.083204 932.236910 NaN NaN NaN
2025-03-09 25.931550 39.893740 78.605448 825.842118 NaN NaN NaN
2025-03-16 24.815863 38.170642 75.175532 783.867389 NaN NaN NaN
2025-03-23 24.147746 37.380302 74.878665 1076.034965 NaN NaN NaN
2025-03-30 23.143380 35.740595 71.139663 895.686799 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-06 22.414493 34.669116 69.296410 949.900834 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-13 21.397822 32.883241 64.607371 648.415318 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-20 20.921975 32.287480 64.146718 779.281812 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-27 20.740079 32.336344 66.053172 1656.437246 NaN NaN NaN
2025-05-04 20.594417 32.452381 68.300312 NaN NaN NaN NaN
2025-05-11 20.353072 32.320711 69.565044 NaN NaN NaN NaN
2025-05-18 19.861515 31.555962 68.019583 NaN NaN NaN NaN